Bolt’s 100M record breaks expected statistical curve of human performance
The Olympics are over! But they are not gone yet; it is now time for the post-analysis; in particular of Usain Bolt‘s incredible new world record.
From Wired.com:
As astonishing as Usain Bolt’s record-breaking 100-meter sprint was, his time of 9.69 seconds is nowhere near what biostatisticians predict is the natural limit for the human body.…
Statisticians have used a lower limit for 100-meter times of about 9.45 seconds…The exponential curve seen above — which is drawn from an equation calculated to fit the world record data — had been quite successful at predicting the steady progress of faster and faster 100-meter times. But Bolt’s recent string of world records was clearly not an expected event: The model didn’t predict a 9.69 until almost 2030.
…
Bolt, though, combines the mechanical advantages of taller men’s bodies with the fast-twitch fibers of smaller men.
“We don’t really know what the best form is and maybe Bolt is redefining that and showing us we missed something,” said biomechanicist John Hutchinson of the Royal Veterinary College at the University of London, who studies how animals move.
Hutchinson also agreed with Weyand that the human speed limit will remain impossible to predict with any confidence.
For him, it’s the International Olympic Committee and other regulatory authorities that will determine how fast athletes will be able to run by limiting the amount of advanced biotechnologies sprinters can use.
“The limits will be largely set by the rules of the IOC,” Hutchinson said. “It’s kind of an arms race with the regulators of the sport and the people trying to push the technology to the limits. At some point here there must be a détente where technology can’t push us any further and the rules will restrict it.”
With techniques for gene therapy likely to become available at some point in the not-too-distant future, Weyand said that its use by athletes was “inevitable.”
“You could see really freakish things and we probably will,” he warned.
Here’s hoping!



Hah! It’s almost funny to see an article like this so soon after finishing Taleb’s The Black Swan. According to him, this kind of statistical probability analysis is destined to break, and he wonders why people even use it anymore since it breaks so often.
But as to the second half of the article, I am excited. It’s nice when established norms are backed into a corner that forces re-analysis, isn’t it?
exactly!
it’s good to remember that Science is a process, not a set of established Facts, that is one new discovery away from changing everything…
Change is the only constant, etc.
I wonder how far Bolt’s optimal performance exceeds the statistical trend. Clearly he can go faster, but the question is by how much.