Charlie Stross’ FAQ for the 21C
Charlie Stross has written a FAQ for the 21st Century. As anyone familiar with his work would expect, it’s fascinating reading. Here’s just some of it:
The 21st century: FAQ
Q: What can we expect?
A: Pretty much what you read about in New Scientist every week. Climate change, dust bowls caused by over-cultivation necessitated by over-population, resource depletion in obscure and irritatingly mission-critical sectors (never mind oil; we’ve only got 60 years of easily exploitable phosphates left — if we run out of phosphates, our agricultural fertilizer base goes away), the great population overshoot (as developing countries transition to the low population growth model of developed countries) leading to happy fun economic side-effects (deflation, house prices crash, stagnation in cutting-edge research sectors due to not enough workers, aging populations), and general bad-tempered overcrowded primate bickering.
Oh, and the unknown unknowns.
Q: Unknown unknowns? Are you talking about Donald Rumsfeld?
A: No, but I’m stealing his term for unprecedented and unpredictable events (sometimes also known as black swans). From the point of view of an observer in 1909, the modern consumer electronics industry (not to mention computing and internetworking) is a black swan, a radical departure from the then-predictable revolutionary enabling technologies (automobiles and aeroplanes). Planes, trains and automobiles were already present, and progressed remarkably well — and a smart mind in 1909 would have predicted this. But antibiotics, communication satellites, and nuclear weapons were another matter. Some of these items were mentioned, in very approximate form, by 1909-era futurists, but for the most part they took the world by surprise.
We’re certainly going to see unknown unknowns in the 21st century. Possible sources of existential surprise include (but are not limited to) biotechnology, nanotechnology, AI, climate change, supply chain/logistics breakthroughs to rival the shipping container, fork lift pallet, bar code, and RFID chip — and politics. But there’ll be other stuff so weird and strange I can’t even guess at it.
Q: Eh? But what’s the big picture?
A: The big picture is that since around 2005, the human species has — for the first time ever — become a predominantly urban species. Prior to that time, the majority of humans lived in rural/agricultural lifestyles. Since then, just over 50% of us now live in cities; the move to urbanization is accelerating. If it continues at the current pace, then some time after 2100 the human population will tend towards the condition of the UK — in which roughly 99% of the population live in cities or suburbia.
This is going to affect everything.
It’s going to affect epidemiology. It’s going to affect wealth production. It’s going to affect agriculture (possibly for the better, if it means a global shift towards concentrated high-intensity food production, possibly in vertical farms, and a re-wilding/return to nature of depopulated and underutilized former rural areas). It’s going to affect the design and layout of our power, transport, and information grids. It’s going to affect our demographics (urban populations tend to grow by immigration, and tend to feature lower birth rates than agricultural communities).
There’s a gigantic difference between the sustainability of a year 2109 with 6.5 billion humans living a first world standard of living in creative cities, and a year 2109 with 3.3 billion humans living in cities and 3.2 billion humans still practicing slash’n'burn subsistence farming all over the map.
…
Q: Politics? Which of (Socialism | Capitalism | Libertarianism | Fascism | Democracy) is going to save us?
A: Probably none of the above.
These are all political ideologies that emerged out of the Westphalian settlement and the subsequent European Enlightenment. This settlement was typified by the ascendancy of the nation state as an atomic administrative entity with relatively non-porous boundaries and legal and trade systems. We seem (at present) to be moving towards a much more globalized, diffused model of sovereignty and legal systems. Currently 70% of primary legislation in the UK originates in the EU (via the European Parliament, European Commission, or Council of Ministers); even in the USA, a country noteworthy for its sense of exclusive legislative independence, a surprisingly high proportion of US federal law originates as a result of WTO treaty processes. Autarky is already difficult to achieve and maintain without extreme privation, as witness the state of North Korea (deliberately isolationist and self-sufficient) or Zimbabwe (wilting under international trade sanctions.
We’re still waiting for the definitive ideological polarity of the internet era to emerge, although Bruce Schneier has opined that the key political hot potato of the 21st century will be the question, “how do we maintain the concept of privacy in an age of ubiquitous communications and surveillance”, and some believe that privacy is already dead. Given the way Moore’s Law is taking us towards an essentially unlimited ability to record everything, I’m not able to argue with the inevitability of surveillance: what I’d dispute is the morality of it.)
He goes on to dismiss the Singularity or Space Colonization as likely to save us.

I could have told you the internet and climate change were going to continue apace for the foreseeable future. But just like Mr. Stross I couldn’t tell you exactly how.
The only thing to really take away from this is the second quoted answer. We really don’t know what is going to happen and never will. Even when we see something coming we have a really bad track record with predicting just how fundamentally it will change things. I loved reading sci-fi from the 70s when I was growing up but if computers had turned out like they were in those books I wouldn’t be typing this on the internet right now.
For all we know by the end of the next decade everything will be solar powered and a new species of genetically engineered microbes will be eating all the plastic out of the ocean while we eat them (along with a side of vat grown cow) and all our new plastic will be made with the CO2 we are sucking back out of the atmosphere. But in reality it will be something no one saw coming that solves those problems.
The only thing you can know about the future is that there will be “unknown unknowns” (I think I’m going to regret it forever that Donald Rumsfeld got to coin this phrase) and that they will change the world in ways you can’t possibly predict. That is it. Any other prediction is just marketing. Just as Stross points out the things that we consider fundamental today, things that changed everyone’s live’s over the last century weren’t even dreams when that century began.
The only rational response is to keep living your life and do your best to adapt to events as they unfold.
being adaptable is key.
for more on Known Unknowns check this out
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/Pubs/Display.Cfm?pubID=890
I haven’t had a chance to read it yet, but it looks very interesting!