Last weekend I attended WorldCon, here in Melbourne. Five days running amok in the mindcandy store; sitting at the foot of the Elders and drinking in their knowledge. (Also, why I’ve been quiet on here of late).
I have roughly 10 pages crammed with notes still to process, but the one thing that most stuck with me was the repeated statement by Charles Stross that we are living amongst the Future Shocked.
I am delighted to discover that after returning home, he has expanded upon this:
I’d just like to note that the past decade or so seems to have been marked by a worldwide upwelling of bigotry and intolerance. And it’s not only the extremist fringes of every religious creed that are to blame here, although they’re part of the picture (and no religion seems to be free of turbulent loons around the edges). We have extremist, eliminationist rhetoric in American political discourse, combined with a hair-raising outbreak of ethnophobia directed at muslims. We have France and Italy deporting Roma (illegally; they’re EU citizens and have an absolute right of residence), in a move fuelled by a wave of xenophobia that bears unpleasant echoes of 1940-45. A wave of petty authoritarianism in the UK has led to the installation of all the well-oiled machinery of a police state — now in disarray due to an epochal political upset, but deeply alarming to anyone concerned for civil liberties in the past decade. Australia had its great firewall debate. Russia’s government is increasingly authoritarian, harking back to the Soviet era in methods and goals (now with less revolutionary ideology).
…
It’s about forty years since “Future Shock” was published, and it seems to have withstood the test of time. More to the point, the Tofflers’ predictions for how the symptoms would be manifest appear to be roughly on target. They predicted a growth of cults and religious fundamentalism; rejection of modernism: irrational authoritarianism: and widespread insecurity. They didn’t nail the other great source of insecurity today, the hollowing-out of state infrastructure and externally imposed asset-stripping in the name of economic orthodoxy that Naomi Klein highlighted in The Shock Doctrine, but to the extent that Friedmanite disaster capitalism can be seen as a predatory corporate response to massive political and economic change, I’m inclined to put disaster capitalism down as being another facet of the same problem. (And it looks as if the UK and USA are finally on the receiving end of disaster capitalism at home, in the post-2008 banking crisis era.)
My working hypothesis to explain the 21st century is that the Tofflers underestimated how pervasive future shock would be. I think somewhere in the range from 15-30% of our fellow hairless primates are currently in the grip of future shock, to some degree. Symptoms include despair, anxiety, depression, disorientation, paranoia, and a desperate search for certainty in lives that are experiencing unpleasant and uninvited change. It’s no surprise that anyone who can offer dogmatic absolute answers is popular, or that the paranoid style is again ascendant in American politics, or that religious certainty is more attractive to many than the nuanced complexities of scientific debate. Climate change is an exceptionally potent trigger for future shock insofar as it promises an unpleasant and unpredictable dose of upcoming instability in the years ahead; denial is an emotionally satisfying response to the threat, if not a sustainable one in the longer term.
Deep craziness: we’re in it, and there’s probably not going to be any reduction in the prevalence of authoritarian escapism until we collectively become accustomed to the pace of change. Which will, at a minimum, not happen until the older generations have died of old age — and maybe not even then.
For those who came in late, Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock is the ‘secret text’ of 80s cyberpunk. It occupied a similar space in what Alan Moore calls the IdeaSpace then, that the Singularity does today. It only follows that if we’re living in the cyberpunk futurepresent, as I have contended, then we should also be in the presence of an Future Shock epidemic .
Stross is far from the first to have made this statement. Bruce Sterling, made a similar statement at the end of his Long Now lecture in 2004:
The loss of the future is becoming acute. The most effective political actors on the planet right now are guys who want to blow themselves up—they really DON’T want to get out of bed in the morning and face another day. People need a motivating vision of what comes next and the awareness that more will happen after that, that the future is a process not a destination
I highly recommend listening to the full lecture:
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To change things, we first have to understand the current situation. This is an important idea in that toolkit.